The Winter 2026-27 Global Snow Outlook
The driver: El Niño at 99%NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (June 11, 2026) + CPC RONI probabilities (June 2026) + IRI ENSO Quick Look (June 22, 2026)
NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
Happening now: the southern winter LIVEThe 2026 Southern Hemisphere season is PassCast's real-time test bed
Slow start across all three Southern Hemisphere regions despite the active El Niño (Snow-Forecast Southern Hemisphere Roundup #321, July 2, 2026). Australia opened June 6 on a 22 cm base but was nearly bare by July 1 until a cold front delivered 10-20 cm on upper slopes July 2-4 — the thin, warm start matches the BoM's El Niño tilt. New Zealand's mild June delayed openings until a June 24-25 southerly; Mt Hutt now holds the hemisphere's best base at 1.0-1.4 m as the classic El Niño southwest-flow regime spins up. Chile is the one to watch: Valle Nevado sat at just 10/30 cm on July 2, but central-Chile El Niño precipitation is characteristically back-loaded into July-September — the monster storm cycles of 1997 and 2015 also followed quiet Junes — and the first major storm of the season is forecast for July 6-11 (20-45 cm at Portillo/Valle Nevado).
Andesavg score 67 / 100
This is El Niño's flagship ski trade: with Niño3.4 possibly reaching +2.0°C, the subtropical jet should park over central Chile and hammer the 30-37°S Andes through late winter — Portillo averages roughly +45% snowfall in warm-ENSO seasons (Masiokas et al. 2006; bestsnow.net). The dry, slow June 2026 start fits the pattern rather than breaking it: 1997 and 2015 also began quietly before multi-meter July-September storm cycles produced some of the deepest Portillo bases on record. August and September should be the payoff months. If you hold a multi-resort pass, this is the hemisphere to spend it in.
Utahavg score 66 / 100
Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.
Coloradoavg score 66 / 100
El Niño splits Colorado along a northwest-southeast axis: the energized subtropical jet favors the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, while Steamboat and the northern mountains lose their La Niña edge. Strong-event analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24) skew average-to-above statewide with storm-heavy springs, though 2015-16 was mixed. Play it as southern Colorado above average, the I-70 corridor near normal, and March-April loaded.
Southwestavg score 65 / 100
This is the US El Niño jackpot: a juiced subtropical jet trains storms across Arizona and New Mexico, and the strong-event record is emphatic — 1982-83 and 1997-98 rank among the snowiest winters ever in the region, and 2023-24 handed Taos a banner year. 2015-16 underperformed as storms tracked north — the standing reminder that analogs aren't promises. Still, the Southwest owns the continent's best odds of a well-above-average 2026-27.
Sierraavg score 63 / 100
Strong El Niño is the Sierra's classic wet card, but it's south-weighted and high-variance: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all-timers, 2023-24 finished above normal, yet 2015-16 — the 'Godzilla' El Niño that was supposed to end the drought — gave Tahoe merely an average year. Mammoth and the southern Sierra carry the continent's best odds of an above-average season outside the Southwest; Tahoe is a better-than-even wet bet with real rain-line risk below 7,000 feet. Expect a back-loaded winter — January through March is when strong-Niño Sierra seasons detonate.
Japanavg score 57 / 100
A strong El Niño weakens the East Asian Winter Monsoon, and fewer Siberian cold surges across the Sea of Japan means fewer of the sea-effect powder days that make Japanuary. The strong-event analogs matter: 1997-98 and 2015-16 were two of Japan's leanest, latest-starting winters, with some low Honshu resorts near half of normal; 2023-24 began painfully late before February rescued Hokkaido. Expect a delayed start, rain events at low-elevation Honshu areas, and the best resilience in Hokkaido (Niseko, Rusutsu) and high-altitude Honshu. Aim for mid-January to mid-February — unless the Arctic Oscillation goes strongly negative, the one wildcard that can override El Niño entirely.
Alpsavg score 54 / 100
The honest call for the Alps is that El Niño barely reaches them — ENSO explains little Alpine snowfall variance, and the season will be decided by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which no model reliably predicts months ahead. The nearest strong-Niño analogs cut both ways: December 2015 was record-warm and green across the northern Alps, while 2023-24 ran warm but storm-rich, burying high-altitude terrain as valley floors turned to rain. Treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a modest warm-wet tilt: rain-line risk below ~1,500 m, decent totals up high, heightened chance of a slow December. Bet altitude, not region.
Interior BCavg score 53 / 100
Interior BC skis best in La Niña, and a strong El Niño sends the storm track south while raising freezing levels — strong La Niña months out-snow strong El Niño months by ~30% at favored spots, though Sun Peaks and Red are nearly ENSO-neutral. 2023-24's thin, warm early winter at Revelstoke is a plausible template. Expect below-average totals, more mid-elevation rain events, and the safest bets in high-alpine terrain from February onward. A down year, not a disaster.
PNWavg score 52 / 100
No US region has more to lose from a strong El Niño: the jet dives south and the Cascades marinate in mild Pacific air. The analogs are grim — 2023-24 delivered one of the worst Cascade seasons in memory with mid-winter rain to the summits, and 1997-98 ran well below normal; 2015-16 was the merciful near-normal exception. Odds strongly favor below-average snowfall and elevated freezing levels, hitting low-elevation terrain hardest. Book March, not December.
Northern Rockiesavg score 51 / 100
Jackson, Big Sky, and the Idaho panhandle are La Niña country, and a strong El Niño typically strands them on the dry, warm side of a southward-displaced storm track — strong La Niña months out-snow strong El Niño months by 30% or more at inland areas. 1997-98 and 2023-24 both brought below-average, late-starting seasons here. Plan on 80-90% of normal snowfall, cold enough at elevation to preserve quality, with the best stretch arriving February onward.
Scandinaviaavg score 48 / 100
Nordic winters answer to the NAO, not the tropics — and the NAO is unpredictable at seasonal range. Sweden's Åre and Norway's Hemsedal/Trysil run cold enough that precipitation usually falls white regardless; Finnish Lapland (Levi, Ruka) is the most temperature-secure skiing in Europe. Treat 2026-27 as a normal Scandinavian lottery: no El Niño excuse, no El Niño boost.
Australiaavg score 44 / 100
El Niño is the Australian snowpack's worst enemy: peak Spencers Creek depth runs ~35 cm below its 196 cm average in El Niño years, and the three prior very strong events peaked 25-55% below normal. The 2026 season is tracking those analogs — a 22 cm opening base on June 6, near-bare slopes by July 1, salvation via a July 2-4 cold front. Expect a below-average peak, an early spring melt-out, and the best conditions in the late-July-to-mid-August window at high, snowmaking-rich terrain. Ski it in the heart of winter or not at all.
Northeastavg score 44 / 100
Strong El Niño is a torch for New England: 2015-16 was the warmest, least-snowy winter in modern Northeast ski history, and 2023-24 wasn't much kinder. The counterweight is the amped subtropical jet, which can detonate coastal bombs when cold air is available — the hope is a 2009-10-style big-storm pattern rather than a 2015-16 washout. Plan for below-average natural snowfall and heavy snowmaking reliance, with genuine boom-or-bust nor'easter upside: one 30-inch weekend can rescue a lean year.
New Zealandavg score 43 / 100
El Niño flips New Zealand into a south-westerly regime — cold S-SW flow favors the southern and western South Island fields. After a mild, delayed June start, that regime is asserting itself: Mt Hutt already carries a 1.0-1.4 m base and 15-30 cm hit South Island peaks in early July. The strong-Niño analogs argue for a respectable-to-good season at Queenstown and Canterbury from mid-July onward, with warm Tasman seas keeping early-season snow levels twitchy on lower slopes. Of the three Southern Hemisphere regions, NZ is the quiet El Niño beneficiary after the Andes.
Western Canadaavg score 43 / 100
Whistler carries the worst El Niño exposure in Canada — a -48.5% seasonal swing between phases at the coast, with village-level rain the recurring failure mode in warm winters. The alpine, 2,000 m up, weathers it far better. Treat 2026-27 as below average with a high-altitude escape hatch.
Mid-Atlanticavg score 40 / 100
The one Eastern region that can genuinely win in a strong El Niño: the amped subtropical jet runs storm after storm along the southern track, and when cold air is in place the Mid-Atlantic gets buried — 2009-10's 'Snowmageddon' winter was a moderate-El Niño special, delivering record seasons from West Virginia to Pennsylvania. The risk is warmth turning those same storms to rain. Boom-or-bust with a real boom case — the opposite of New England's outlook.
Eastern Canadaavg score 38 / 100
Quebec's strong-El Niño problem is warmth more than storm count: 1997-98 — the winter Environment Canada says El Niño 'cancelled' — brought Quebec City its mildest winter on record, and 2015-16 repeated the trick at Tremblant. The wildcard is the El Niño-fueled subtropical jet, which can still land heavyweight synoptic snowstorms on the St. Lawrence when cold air cooperates. Expect a below-average, snowmaking-dependent season with a compressed mid-January-to-early-March core.
Pyreneesavg score 37 / 100
The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.
Canadian Rockiesavg score 37 / 100
Banff's hills carry one of Canada's clearest El Niño penalties — roughly -38% at Lake Louise and -56% at Sunshine between phases — because warm-ENSO winters leave western Canada mild and storm-starved. 1997-98 and 2015-16 both brought lean mid-winters, and 2023-24 had Alberta resorts leaning on snowmaking into January. Sunshine's high, cold terrain preserves what falls, and spring upslope storms offer a late lifeline: plan on a below-average, back-loaded season with the best turns in March.
Midwestavg score 29 / 100
Lake-effect country needs cold more than it needs moisture, and a strong El Niño starves it of both: mild Pacific air floods the continent's midsection and CPC's outlook leans dry over the Lakes. 1997-98 and 2015-16 were two of the region's leanest, shortest seasons. Snowmaking-heavy hills will operate; natural-snow gems like Mount Bohemia carry real bust risk. If the Arctic Oscillation dips negative, take the cold snap and ski it hard.
Sources: NOAA CPC ENSO advisory & seasonal outlooks · ECMWF SEAS5 via Open-Meteo · ERA5 reanalysis · Masiokas et al. 2006 (Andes) · Ueda et al. 2015 (EAWM) · BoM/Weatherzone (Australia) · NIWA (NZ) · bestsnow.net station correlations · Snow-Forecast SH Roundup #321. See methodology.