Les Arcs FR
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 227" at Les Arcs for 2026-27 — 92% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 56/100, ~11 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 174" and 358". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Les Arcs, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Les Arcs's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 86% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 125", spread 89–167"). Applied as a -3% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readAlps · from the 2026-27 outlook
The honest call for the Alps is that El Niño barely reaches them — ENSO explains little Alpine snowfall variance, and the season will be decided by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which no model reliably predicts months ahead. The nearest strong-Niño analogs cut both ways: December 2015 was record-warm and green across the northern Alps, while 2023-24 ran warm but storm-rich, burying high-altitude terrain as valley floors turned to rain. Treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a modest warm-wet tilt: rain-line risk below ~1,500 m, decent totals up high, heightened chance of a slow December. Bet altitude, not region.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Les Arcs (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Les Arcs
Les Arcs isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Les Arcs 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Les Arcs get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 227 inches — 92% of a typical season at Les Arcs — with 80% of outcomes between 174 and 358 inches. The forecast blends Les Arcs's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Les Arcs in 2026-27?
- Les Arcs is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $74 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Les Arcs in 2026-27?
- Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Les Arcs. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Les Arcs this season?
- The simulation gives Les Arcs a 39% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 11 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 56/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.