Ã…re SE
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 165" at Ã…re for 2026-27 — 103% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 49/100, ~3 powder days, and Jan–Feb as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 114" and 227". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Ã…re, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Ã…re's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 109% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 96", spread 62–131"). Applied as a +2% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readScandinavia · from the 2026-27 outlook
Nordic winters answer to the NAO, not the tropics — and the NAO is unpredictable at seasonal range. Sweden's Åre and Norway's Hemsedal/Trysil run cold enough that precipitation usually falls white regardless; Finnish Lapland (Levi, Ruka) is the most temperature-secure skiing in Europe. Treat 2026-27 as a normal Scandinavian lottery: no El Niño excuse, no El Niño boost.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Ã…re (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Ã…re
Ã…re isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Ã…re 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Ã…re get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 165 inches — 103% of a typical season at Ã…re — with 80% of outcomes between 114 and 227 inches. The forecast blends Ã…re's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Ã…re in 2026-27?
- Ã…re is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $72 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Ã…re in 2026-27?
- Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Ã…re. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Ã…re this season?
- The simulation gives Ã…re a 55% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 3 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 49/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.