❄ PassCast
Mountains / Northeast

Smugglers' Notch VT

1,030–3,638 ft · long-term average 310" per season · window ticket ~$112 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 284" at Smugglers' Notch for 2026-27 — 89% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 53/100, ~12 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

53SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%68
Season lean 30%36
Powder days 20%48
Bust risk 15%58
Median sim
284" (89% of typical)
P(above typical)
33%
Powder days
~12 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 188" and 386". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Smugglers' Notch, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"P10 188"P50 284"P90 386"typical 320"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Smugglers' Notch's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (weak-moderate)

Northern New England saw below-average snow in >90% of moderate-to-strong El Niño winters; the warm signal is more reliable than the snow signal, and coastal storm tracks can flip individual winters. Applied as a -6% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readNortheast · from the 2026-27 outlook

Strong El Niño is a torch for New England: 2015-16 was the warmest, least-snowy winter in modern Northeast ski history, and 2023-24 wasn't much kinder. The counterweight is the amped subtropical jet, which can detonate coastal bombs when cold air is available — the hope is a 2009-10-style big-storm pattern rather than a 2015-16 washout. Plan for below-average natural snowfall and heavy snowmaking reliance, with genuine boom-or-bust nor'easter upside: one 30-inch weekend can rescue a lean year.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov103%Dec99%Jan88%Feb97%Mar96%Apr100%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Smugglers' Notch (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

100"225"325"450"1990-91: 228" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 248" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 303" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 340" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 215" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 360" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 379" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 320" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 277" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 327" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 362" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 292" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 317" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 298" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 233" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 217" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 380" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 403" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 281" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 262" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 364" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 215" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 232" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 281" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 320" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 179" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 378" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 347" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 411" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 325" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 278" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 329" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 357" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 405" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 346" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 353" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Smugglers' Notch

Smugglers' Notch isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.

10days

No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.

Smugglers' Notch 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Smugglers' Notch get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 284 inches — 89% of a typical season at Smugglers' Notch — with 80% of outcomes between 188 and 386 inches. The forecast blends Smugglers' Notch's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Smugglers' Notch in 2026-27?
Smugglers' Notch is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $112 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
When is the best time to ski Smugglers' Notch in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Smugglers' Notch. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Smugglers' Notch this season?
The simulation gives Smugglers' Notch a 33% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 12 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 53/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.