❄ PassCast
Mountains / Alps

Verbier 4 Vallees CH

4,921–10,925 ft · long-term average 250" per season · window ticket ~$109 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 243" at Verbier 4 Vallees for 2026-27 — 101% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 61/100, ~11 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

61SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%62
Season lean 30%52
Powder days 20%44
Bust risk 15%100
Median sim
243" (101% of typical)
P(above typical)
53%
Powder days
~11 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 191" and 361". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Verbier 4 Vallees, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"P10 191"P50 243"P90 361"typical 240"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Verbier 4 Vallees's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readAlps · from the 2026-27 outlook

The honest call for the Alps is that El Niño barely reaches them — ENSO explains little Alpine snowfall variance, and the season will be decided by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which no model reliably predicts months ahead. The nearest strong-Niño analogs cut both ways: December 2015 was record-warm and green across the northern Alps, while 2023-24 ran warm but storm-rich, burying high-altitude terrain as valley floors turned to rain. Treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a modest warm-wet tilt: rain-line risk below ~1,500 m, decent totals up high, heightened chance of a slow December. Bet altitude, not region.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov101%Dec105%Jan121%Feb101%Mar106%Apr106%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Verbier 4 Vallees (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

100"200"300"400"1990-91: 212" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 230" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 233" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 284" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 379" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 167" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 263" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 219" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 312" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 267" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 315" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 194" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 238" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 244" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 191" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 213" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 203" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 259" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 269" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 210" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 154" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 267" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 288" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 244" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 241" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 259" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 211" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 364" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 276" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 299" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 221" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 226" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 235" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 374" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 239" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 200" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Verbier 4 Vallees

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$109/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Epic Pass$1,119
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$574expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Verbier 4 Vallees (5d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.2 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $574).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
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Verbier 4 Vallees 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Verbier 4 Vallees get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 243 inches — 101% of a typical season at Verbier 4 Vallees — with 80% of outcomes between 191 and 361 inches. The forecast blends Verbier 4 Vallees's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Verbier 4 Vallees in 2026-27?
Verbier 4 Vallees is on Epic Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Verbier 4 Vallees in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Verbier 4 Vallees. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Verbier 4 Vallees this season?
The simulation gives Verbier 4 Vallees a 53% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 11 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 61/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.