How PassCast works
PassCast documents the model and decision rules behind ski pass planning: is a 2026-27 season pass worth it for how you actually ski? Dated pass prices, access rules, and ticket math remain independently useful; seasonal historical outputs have a separate source-status boundary described below.
Historical-model holding status: the bundled 36-season climatology still exists locally as legacy context, but its original source acquisition has no reproducible provenance receipt. This page documents the legacy model design rather than presenting its historical layer, seasonal derivatives, or back-test as a newly verified public data product. A clean ERA5 rebuild must bind the source inputs and output to a verifiable sidecar before those claims resume. Exact-date Powder Odds remains separately paused until its licensed daily archive is configured.
Current planning is still useful without a snow-model claim: use the Ski Pass Cost Calculator for documented tickets-versus-pass math, the family price calculator for age bands, and reported price dates for a source-only calendar reminder.
The honest part first: no one can forecast a season's snowfall the way a weatherman forecasts Tuesday. Day-to-day weather models have near-zero skill beyond ~2 weeks. Slow climate drivers can be useful context months out, but their historical baseline must be independently reproducible before it is promoted as a current forecast input.
The existing back-test belongs to the same legacy historical layer and is not being promoted as a newly verified accuracy claim while the provenance rebuild is underway.
Historical model in holding
The legacy analog engine, seasonal simulations, regional skill scores, snow rankings, and seasonal derivatives are deliberately not being presented as current verified outputs until the clean ERA5 rebuild supplies a reproducible source-acquisition receipt and output hash. The text below is therefore limited to the source boundary and the independent pass-planning rules that remain useful without a snowfall claim.
Pass decision rules that remain active
- Pass prices and access rules are date-stamped source snapshots and must be rechecked with the operator.
- Ticket-versus-pass comparisons honor listed day caps, shared pools, blackouts, and documented caveats.
- Current lift operations, terrain, roads, reservations, and checkout price always come from the relevant operator.
Data sources
- Historical ERA5 layer — legacy bundled climatology with unverified original source-acquisition provenance; a clean rebuild and source receipt are required before it is promoted as verified
- Seasonal climate and weather sources — retained as legacy model-design references, not currently promoted as verified forecast inputs
- Pass prices & access rules — date-stamped source snapshots; recheck the pass company before buying
- Day-ticket benchmarks — 2025-26 peak-window actuals (2026-27 rates publish in fall; override in the wizard)
What PassCast is not
Not a promise of powder, not affiliated with any pass, and not a substitute for the two questions no model can answer: do you love the mountain enough to go even in a lean year, and is the refund/deferral policy acceptable to you? The historical seasonal layer is in holding, so use the independently sourced pass-price and access math alongside the operator’s current information.