How much snow will Solitude get in the 2026-27 season?

PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 441 inches — 90% of a typical season at Solitude — with 80% of outcomes between 288 and 736 inches. The forecast blends Solitude's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.

Is a season pass worth it for Solitude in 2026-27?

Solitude is on Ikon Pass, Ikon Base for 2026-27. At roughly $179 for a peak-window day ticket, the Ikon Base ($1,019) breaks even in about 6 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.

When is the best time to ski Solitude in 2026-27?

Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Solitude. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.

How reliable will the snow be at Solitude this season?

The simulation gives Solitude a 36% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 28 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 68/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.

Mountains / Utah

Solitude UT

7,995–10,036 ft · long-term average 500" per season · window ticket ~$179 · prime window Jan–Feb

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 441" at Solitude for 2026-27 — 90% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 68/100, ~28 powder days, and Jan–Feb as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

Snow quantity 35%83

Season lean 30%38

Powder days 20%100

Bust risk 15%50

Median sim

441" (90% of typical)

P(above typical)

36%

Powder days

~28 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 288" and 736". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Solitude, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Solitude's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readUtah · from the 2026-27 outlook

Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Solitude (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Solitude

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$179/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

Days you plan to ski there

10days

Day ticket $ (default ~$179)

Best value for your plan

Ikon Base$1,019

STRONG BUY

100%seasons it pays off+$701expected vs tickets5.7breakeven days

Breakeven is 5.7 days at ~$179/day window tickets; you plan 10.
Covers Solitude (unlimited).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.6 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $701).

Unlimited at a smaller Alterra set and 5 days at most partners, with peak-holiday blackouts. Excludes Jackson Hole, Alta, Snowbasin, and Deer Valley.

Ikon Pass$1,449

BUY

91%seasons it pays off+$271expected vs tickets8.1breakeven days

Breakeven is 8.1 days at ~$179/day window tickets; you plan 10.
Covers Solitude (unlimited).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.6 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 91% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $271).

Unlimited at ~18 Alterra destinations, 7 days each at partners (Jackson Hole, Alta, Big Sky, Aspen...). No blackouts; some partners need reservations.

Solitude 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Solitude get in the 2026-27 season?: PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 441 inches — 90% of a typical season at Solitude — with 80% of outcomes between 288 and 736 inches. The forecast blends Solitude's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Solitude in 2026-27?: Solitude is on Ikon Pass, Ikon Base for 2026-27. At roughly $179 for a peak-window day ticket, the Ikon Base ($1,019) breaks even in about 6 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.
When is the best time to ski Solitude in 2026-27?: Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Solitude. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Solitude this season?: The simulation gives Solitude a 36% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 28 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 68/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.