❄ PassCast
Mountains / Northern Rockies

Lost Trail Powder Mountain MT

7,001–8,199 ft · long-term average 325" per season · window ticket ~$62 · prime window Nov–Dec

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 273" at Lost Trail Powder Mountain for 2026-27 — 83% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 50/100, ~12 powder days, and Nov–Dec as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

50SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%66
Season lean 30%30
Powder days 20%48
Bust risk 15%56
Median sim
273" (83% of typical)
P(above typical)
20%
Powder days
~12 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 200" and 359". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Lost Trail Powder Mountain, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"P10 200"P50 273"P90 359"typical 329"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Lost Trail Powder Mountain's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (moderate-strong)

Jackson Hole and Big Sky are La Niña-favored (seasonal MEI correlation ~-47%); El Niño winters trend warmer with below-normal precipitation. Applied as a -5% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readNorthern Rockies · from the 2026-27 outlook

Jackson, Big Sky, and the Idaho panhandle are La Niña country, and a strong El Niño typically strands them on the dry, warm side of a southward-displaced storm track — strong La Niña months out-snow strong El Niño months by 30% or more at inland areas. 1997-98 and 2023-24 both brought below-average, late-starting seasons here. Plan on 80-90% of normal snowfall, cold enough at elevation to preserve quality, with the best stretch arriving February onward.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov100%Dec80%Jan87%Feb69%Mar90%Apr98%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Nov–Dec — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Lost Trail Powder Mountain (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

125"250"375"525"1990-91: 297" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 231" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 329" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 223" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 288" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 441" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 475" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 259" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 405" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 286" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 176" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 262" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 337" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 235" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 204" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 332" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 281" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 356" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 365" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 223" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 406" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 332" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 276" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 386" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 271" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 315" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 376" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 466" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 355" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 324" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 328" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 361" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 363" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 303" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 377" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 456" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Lost Trail Powder Mountain

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$62/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Indy Pass$369
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$245expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Lost Trail Powder Mountain (2d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.3 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $245).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Lost Trail Powder Mountain 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Lost Trail Powder Mountain get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 273 inches — 83% of a typical season at Lost Trail Powder Mountain — with 80% of outcomes between 200 and 359 inches. The forecast blends Lost Trail Powder Mountain's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Lost Trail Powder Mountain in 2026-27?
Lost Trail Powder Mountain is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Lost Trail Powder Mountain in 2026-27?
Nov–Dec is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Lost Trail Powder Mountain. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Lost Trail Powder Mountain this season?
The simulation gives Lost Trail Powder Mountain a 20% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 12 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 50/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.