Grouse Mountain BC
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 223" at Grouse Mountain for 2026-27 — 77% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 39/100, ~10 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 132" and 320". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Grouse Mountain, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Grouse Mountain's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
Whistler's seasonal MEI correlation is -48.5% — squarely La Niña-favored terrain. El Niño winters run warmer with rain risk at the village level. Applied as a -6% tilt at partial weight.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 18% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 31", spread 7–60"). Applied as a -10% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readWestern Canada · from the 2026-27 outlook
Whistler carries the worst El Niño exposure in Canada — a -48.5% seasonal swing between phases at the coast, with village-level rain the recurring failure mode in warm winters. The alpine, 2,000 m up, weathers it far better. Treat 2026-27 as below average with a high-altitude escape hatch.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Grouse Mountain (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Grouse Mountain
Grouse Mountain isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Grouse Mountain 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Grouse Mountain get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 223 inches — 77% of a typical season at Grouse Mountain — with 80% of outcomes between 132 and 320 inches. The forecast blends Grouse Mountain's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Grouse Mountain in 2026-27?
- Grouse Mountain is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $81 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Grouse Mountain in 2026-27?
- Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Grouse Mountain. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Grouse Mountain this season?
- The simulation gives Grouse Mountain a 18% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 10 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 39/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.