❄ PassCast
Mountains / Utah

Park City UT

6,801–10,026 ft · long-term average 355" per season · window ticket ~$351 · prime window Jan–Feb

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 320" at Park City for 2026-27 — 94% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 64/100, ~18 powder days, and Jan–Feb as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

64SKIABILITY / 100Deep & reliable
Snow quantity 35%72
Season lean 30%43
Powder days 20%72
Bust risk 15%78
Median sim
320" (94% of typical)
P(above typical)
45%
Powder days
~18 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 224" and 464". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Park City, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"600"700"800"P10 224"P50 320"P90 464"typical 339"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Park City's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readUtah · from the 2026-27 outlook

Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov102%Dec83%Jan108%Feb86%Mar119%Apr90%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Park City (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

175"375"550"750"1990-91: 386" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 210" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 470" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 270" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 400" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 426" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 482" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 399" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 343" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 313" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 274" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 283" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 261" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 337" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 359" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 422" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 257" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 389" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 410" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 284" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 557" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 253" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 282" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 314" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 233" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 341" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 498" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 233" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 432" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 284" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 264" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 307" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 687" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 479" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 360" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 283" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Park City

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$351/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Best value for your plan
Epic Local$829
STRONG BUY
100%seasons it pays off+$2,633expected vs tickets2.4breakeven days
  • Breakeven is 2.4 days at ~$351/day window tickets; you plan 10.
  • Covers Park City (unlimited).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $2,633).
Unlimited with holiday restrictions at most core resorts; 10 combined holiday-restricted days at Vail, Beaver Creek, and Whistler Blackcomb.
Epic Pass$1,119
STRONG BUY
100%seasons it pays off+$2,343expected vs tickets3.2breakeven days
  • Breakeven is 3.2 days at ~$351/day window tickets; you plan 10.
  • Covers Park City (unlimited).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $2,343).
Unlimited, unrestricted access at all Vail Resorts mountains — no blackouts, no reservations.

Park City 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Park City get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 320 inches — 94% of a typical season at Park City — with 80% of outcomes between 224 and 464 inches. The forecast blends Park City's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Park City in 2026-27?
Park City is on Epic Pass, Epic Local for 2026-27. At roughly $351 for a peak-window day ticket, the Epic Local ($829) breaks even in about 3 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.
When is the best time to ski Park City in 2026-27?
Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Park City. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Park City this season?
The simulation gives Park City a 45% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 18 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 64/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.