❄ PassCast
Mountains / Colorado

Powderhorn CO

8,199–9,849 ft · long-term average 250" per season · window ticket ~$105 · prime window Feb–Mar

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 233" at Powderhorn for 2026-27 — 105% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 61/100, ~14 powder days, and Feb–Mar as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

61SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%61
Season lean 30%56
Powder days 20%56
Bust risk 15%80
Median sim
233" (105% of typical)
P(above typical)
55%
Powder days
~14 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 149" and 467". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Powderhorn, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

100"200"300"400"500"600"700"P10 149"P50 233"P90 467"typical 223"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Powderhorn's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: favorable (weak-moderate)

A north-south dipole: El Niño favors the southern ranges (+10-25%) via the southern storm track, is roughly neutral in the north. Statewide signal is modest. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readColorado · from the 2026-27 outlook

El Niño splits Colorado along a northwest-southeast axis: the energized subtropical jet favors the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, while Steamboat and the northern mountains lose their La Niña edge. Strong-event analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24) skew average-to-above statewide with storm-heavy springs, though 2015-16 was mixed. Play it as southern Colorado above average, the I-70 corridor near normal, and March-April loaded.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov106%Dec104%Jan111%Feb104%Mar149%Apr100%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Feb–Mar — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Powderhorn (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

150"300"450"600"1990-91: 219" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 174" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 314" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 172" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 254" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 164" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 243" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 233" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 179" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 146" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 189" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 146" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 170" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 169" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 258" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 152" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 142" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 228" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 197" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 226" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 166" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 138" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 183" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 166" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 150" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 232" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 414" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 302" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 469" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 388" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 346" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 315" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 558" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 484" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 386" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 328" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Powderhorn

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$105/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Indy Pass$369
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$159expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Powderhorn (2d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.1 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $159).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Powderhorn 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Powderhorn get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 233 inches — 105% of a typical season at Powderhorn — with 80% of outcomes between 149 and 467 inches. The forecast blends Powderhorn's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Powderhorn in 2026-27?
Powderhorn is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Powderhorn in 2026-27?
Feb–Mar is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Powderhorn. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Powderhorn this season?
The simulation gives Powderhorn a 55% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 14 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 61/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.