Mount Bohemia MI
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 210" at Mount Bohemia for 2026-27 — 87% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 47/100, ~10 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 141" and 356". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mount Bohemia, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mount Bohemia's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
La Niña's colder pattern feeds both synoptic snow and lake-effect; El Niño's mild winters cut both — warm lakes don't help without cold air. CPC's 2026-27 outlook shows below-normal precipitation over the Lakes. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readMidwest · from the 2026-27 outlook
Lake-effect country needs cold more than it needs moisture, and a strong El Niño starves it of both: mild Pacific air floods the continent's midsection and CPC's outlook leans dry over the Lakes. 1997-98 and 2015-16 were two of the region's leanest, shortest seasons. Snowmaking-heavy hills will operate; natural-snow gems like Mount Bohemia carry real bust risk. If the Arctic Oscillation dips negative, take the cold snap and ski it hard.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mount Bohemia (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Mount Bohemia
Mount Bohemia isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Mount Bohemia 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Mount Bohemia get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 210 inches — 87% of a typical season at Mount Bohemia — with 80% of outcomes between 141 and 356 inches. The forecast blends Mount Bohemia's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Mount Bohemia in 2026-27?
- Mount Bohemia is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $105 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Mount Bohemia in 2026-27?
- Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mount Bohemia. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Mount Bohemia this season?
- The simulation gives Mount Bohemia a 36% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 10 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 47/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.