Keystone CO
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 240" at Keystone for 2026-27 — 102% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 60/100, ~9 powder days, and Mar–Apr as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 196" and 294". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Keystone, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Keystone's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
A north-south dipole: El Niño favors the southern ranges (+10-25%) via the southern storm track, is roughly neutral in the north. Statewide signal is modest. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readColorado · from the 2026-27 outlook
El Niño splits Colorado along a northwest-southeast axis: the energized subtropical jet favors the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, while Steamboat and the northern mountains lose their La Niña edge. Strong-event analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24) skew average-to-above statewide with storm-heavy springs, though 2015-16 was mixed. Play it as southern Colorado above average, the I-70 corridor near normal, and March-April loaded.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Keystone (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Keystone
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$292/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Breakeven is 2.8 days at ~$292/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Keystone (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.1 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $2,126).
- Breakeven is 3.8 days at ~$292/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Keystone (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.1 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $1,836).
Keystone 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Keystone get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 240 inches — 102% of a typical season at Keystone — with 80% of outcomes between 196 and 294 inches. The forecast blends Keystone's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Keystone in 2026-27?
- Keystone is on Epic Pass, Epic Local for 2026-27. At roughly $292 for a peak-window day ticket, the Epic Local ($829) breaks even in about 3 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.
- When is the best time to ski Keystone in 2026-27?
- Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Keystone. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Keystone this season?
- The simulation gives Keystone a 55% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 9 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 60/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.