❄ PassCast
Mountains / Northern Rockies

Whitefish Mountain Resort MT

4,465–6,814 ft · long-term average 300" per season · window ticket ~$115 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 236" at Whitefish Mountain Resort for 2026-27 — 84% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 52/100, ~11 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

52SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%61
Season lean 30%31
Powder days 20%44
Bust risk 15%81
Median sim
236" (84% of typical)
P(above typical)
20%
Powder days
~11 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 191" and 310". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Whitefish Mountain Resort, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"600"P10 191"P50 236"P90 310"typical 280"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Whitefish Mountain Resort's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (moderate-strong)

Jackson Hole and Big Sky are La Niña-favored (seasonal MEI correlation ~-47%); El Niño winters trend warmer with below-normal precipitation. Applied as a -5% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readNorthern Rockies · from the 2026-27 outlook

Jackson, Big Sky, and the Idaho panhandle are La Niña country, and a strong El Niño typically strands them on the dry, warm side of a southward-displaced storm track — strong La Niña months out-snow strong El Niño months by 30% or more at inland areas. 1997-98 and 2023-24 both brought below-average, late-starting seasons here. Plan on 80-90% of normal snowfall, cold enough at elevation to preserve quality, with the best stretch arriving February onward.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov82%Dec89%Jan89%Feb67%Mar95%Apr81%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Whitefish Mountain Resort (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

125"275"400"550"1990-91: 362" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 235" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 258" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 283" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 272" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 393" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 507" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 238" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 431" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 324" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 246" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 346" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 285" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 281" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 220" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 322" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 293" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 400" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 339" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 255" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 472" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 330" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 324" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 423" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 240" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 263" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 259" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 351" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 223" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 233" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 227" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 279" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 197" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 207" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 262" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 219" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Whitefish Mountain Resort

Whitefish Mountain Resort isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.

10days

No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.

Whitefish Mountain Resort 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Whitefish Mountain Resort get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 236 inches — 84% of a typical season at Whitefish Mountain Resort — with 80% of outcomes between 191 and 310 inches. The forecast blends Whitefish Mountain Resort's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Whitefish Mountain Resort in 2026-27?
Whitefish Mountain Resort is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $115 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
When is the best time to ski Whitefish Mountain Resort in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Whitefish Mountain Resort. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Whitefish Mountain Resort this season?
The simulation gives Whitefish Mountain Resort a 20% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 11 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 52/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.