Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) JP
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 376" at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) for 2026-27 — 97% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 68/100, ~18 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 260" and 570". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba), tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba)'s historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
El Niño weakens the East Asian Winter Monsoon — fewer Siberian cold surges across the warm Sea of Japan means fewer sea-effect powder days (Ueda et al. 2015). El Niño seasons average ~6% less snowfall nationally, but 1997-98 and 2015-16 cut low-elevation Honshu to near half of normal; Hokkaido and high terrain are most resilient. Applied as a -4% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readJapan · from the 2026-27 outlook
A strong El Niño weakens the East Asian Winter Monsoon, and fewer Siberian cold surges across the Sea of Japan means fewer of the sea-effect powder days that make Japanuary. The strong-event analogs matter: 1997-98 and 2015-16 were two of Japan's leanest, latest-starting winters, with some low Honshu resorts near half of normal; 2023-24 began painfully late before February rescued Hokkaido. Expect a delayed start, rain events at low-elevation Honshu areas, and the best resilience in Hokkaido (Niseko, Rusutsu) and high-altitude Honshu. Aim for mid-January to mid-February — unless the Arctic Oscillation goes strongly negative, the one wildcard that can override El Niño entirely.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba)
Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 376 inches — 97% of a typical season at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) — with 80% of outcomes between 260 and 570 inches. The forecast blends Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba)'s own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) in 2026-27?
- Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $55 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) in 2026-27?
- Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba). Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) this season?
- The simulation gives Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba) a 45% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 18 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 68/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.