❄ PassCast
Mountains / PNW

Mt. Bachelor OR

6,299–9,065 ft · long-term average 462" per season · window ticket ~$165 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 385" at Mt. Bachelor for 2026-27 — 82% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 58/100, ~20 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

58SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%79
Season lean 30%29
Powder days 20%80
Bust risk 15%41
Median sim
385" (82% of typical)
P(above typical)
27%
Powder days
~20 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 201" and 584". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mt. Bachelor, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

200"300"400"500"600"700"800"900"1000"P10 201"P50 385"P90 584"typical 467"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mt. Bachelor's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (strong)

The most reliable ENSO ski signal in the US: La Niña winters run ~115-125% of normal in the Cascades; El Niño is 'the great snowfall suppressor' (NOAA) with warmer storms and higher snow levels. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readPNW · from the 2026-27 outlook

No US region has more to lose from a strong El Niño: the jet dives south and the Cascades marinate in mild Pacific air. The analogs are grim — 2023-24 delivered one of the worst Cascade seasons in memory with mid-winter rain to the summits, and 1997-98 ran well below normal; 2015-16 was the merciful near-normal exception. Odds strongly favor below-average snowfall and elevated freezing levels, hitting low-elevation terrain hardest. Book March, not December.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov87%Dec88%Jan84%Feb70%Mar99%Apr91%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mt. Bachelor (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

200"425"625"850"1990-91: 304" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 190" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 445" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 300" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 465" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 436" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 480" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 367" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 656" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 458" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 267" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 469" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 382" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 479" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 274" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 536" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 428" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 532" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 478" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 377" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 532" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 512" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 386" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 372" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 216" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 443" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 697" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 517" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 610" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 486" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 577" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 567" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 652" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 638" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 776" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 330" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Mt. Bachelor

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$165/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Ikon Base$1,019
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$194expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Mt. Bachelor (5d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.2 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $194).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Unlimited at a smaller Alterra set and 5 days at most partners, with peak-holiday blackouts. Excludes Jackson Hole, Alta, Snowbasin, and Deer Valley.
Ikon Pass$1,449
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$294expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Mt. Bachelor (7d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.2 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $294).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Unlimited at ~18 Alterra destinations, 7 days each at partners (Jackson Hole, Alta, Big Sky, Aspen...). No blackouts; some partners need reservations.

Mt. Bachelor 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Mt. Bachelor get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 385 inches — 82% of a typical season at Mt. Bachelor — with 80% of outcomes between 201 and 584 inches. The forecast blends Mt. Bachelor's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Mt. Bachelor in 2026-27?
Mt. Bachelor is on Ikon Pass, Ikon Base for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Mt. Bachelor in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mt. Bachelor. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Mt. Bachelor this season?
The simulation gives Mt. Bachelor a 27% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 20 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 58/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.