❄ PassCast
Mountains / Midwest

Wilmot Mountain WI

741–935 ft · long-term average 45" per season · window ticket ~$95 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 41" at Wilmot Mountain for 2026-27 — 94% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 32/100, ~1 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

32SKIABILITY / 100Marginal natural snow
Snow quantity 35%15
Season lean 30%43
Powder days 20%4
Bust risk 15%85
Median sim
41" (94% of typical)
P(above typical)
40%
Powder days
~1 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 29" and 56". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Wilmot Mountain, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

25"50"75"P10 29"P50 41"P90 56"typical 43"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Wilmot Mountain's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (moderate)

La Niña's colder pattern feeds both synoptic snow and lake-effect; El Niño's mild winters cut both — warm lakes don't help without cold air. CPC's 2026-27 outlook shows below-normal precipitation over the Lakes. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readMidwest · from the 2026-27 outlook

Lake-effect country needs cold more than it needs moisture, and a strong El Niño starves it of both: mild Pacific air floods the continent's midsection and CPC's outlook leans dry over the Lakes. 1997-98 and 2015-16 were two of the region's leanest, shortest seasons. Snowmaking-heavy hills will operate; natural-snow gems like Mount Bohemia carry real bust risk. If the Arctic Oscillation dips negative, take the cold snap and ski it hard.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov150%Dec100%Jan108%Feb100%Mar100%Apr200%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Wilmot Mountain (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

25"50"75"75"1990-91: 40" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 48" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 50" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 39" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 43" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 34" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 57" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 43" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 38" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 37" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 48" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 33" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 29" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 26" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 43" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 34" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 53" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 79" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 70" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 52" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 53" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 28" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 54" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 56" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 38" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 38" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 31" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 46" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 72" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 44" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 58" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 40" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 54" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 45" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 24" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 41" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Wilmot Mountain

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$95/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Best value for your plan
Epic Local$829
BUY
87%seasons it pays off+$102expected vs tickets8.7breakeven days
  • Breakeven is 8.7 days at ~$95/day window tickets; you plan 10.
  • Covers Wilmot Mountain (unlimited).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.8 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 87% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $102).
Unlimited with holiday restrictions at most core resorts; 10 combined holiday-restricted days at Vail, Beaver Creek, and Whistler Blackcomb.
Epic Pass$1,119
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$188expected vs tickets11.8breakeven days
  • Breakeven is 11.8 days at ~$95/day window tickets; you plan 10.
  • Covers Wilmot Mountain (unlimited).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.8 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $188).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Unlimited, unrestricted access at all Vail Resorts mountains — no blackouts, no reservations.

Wilmot Mountain 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Wilmot Mountain get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 41 inches — 94% of a typical season at Wilmot Mountain — with 80% of outcomes between 29 and 56 inches. The forecast blends Wilmot Mountain's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Wilmot Mountain in 2026-27?
Wilmot Mountain is on Epic Pass, Epic Local for 2026-27. At roughly $95 for a peak-window day ticket, the Epic Local ($829) breaks even in about 9 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.
When is the best time to ski Wilmot Mountain in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Wilmot Mountain. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Wilmot Mountain this season?
The simulation gives Wilmot Mountain a 40% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 1 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 32/100 (“Marginal natural snow”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.