Mt Hood Skibowl OR
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 211" at Mt Hood Skibowl for 2026-27 — 76% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 36/100, ~8 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 83" and 407". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mt Hood Skibowl, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mt Hood Skibowl's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
The most reliable ENSO ski signal in the US: La Niña winters run ~115-125% of normal in the Cascades; El Niño is 'the great snowfall suppressor' (NOAA) with warmer storms and higher snow levels. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readPNW · from the 2026-27 outlook
No US region has more to lose from a strong El Niño: the jet dives south and the Cascades marinate in mild Pacific air. The analogs are grim — 2023-24 delivered one of the worst Cascade seasons in memory with mid-winter rain to the summits, and 1997-98 ran well below normal; 2015-16 was the merciful near-normal exception. Odds strongly favor below-average snowfall and elevated freezing levels, hitting low-elevation terrain hardest. Book March, not December.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mt Hood Skibowl (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Mt Hood Skibowl
Mt Hood Skibowl isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Mt Hood Skibowl 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Mt Hood Skibowl get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 211 inches — 76% of a typical season at Mt Hood Skibowl — with 80% of outcomes between 83 and 407 inches. The forecast blends Mt Hood Skibowl's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Mt Hood Skibowl in 2026-27?
- Mt Hood Skibowl is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $89 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Mt Hood Skibowl in 2026-27?
- Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mt Hood Skibowl. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Mt Hood Skibowl this season?
- The simulation gives Mt Hood Skibowl a 30% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 8 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 36/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.