How much snow will Andermatt-Sedrun get in the 2026-27 season?

PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 314 inches — 104% of a typical season at Andermatt-Sedrun — with 80% of outcomes between 210 and 426 inches. The forecast blends Andermatt-Sedrun's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.

Is a season pass worth it for Andermatt-Sedrun in 2026-27?

Andermatt-Sedrun is on Epic Pass for 2026-27. At roughly $114 for a peak-window day ticket, the Epic Pass ($1,119) breaks even in about 10 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.

When is the best time to ski Andermatt-Sedrun in 2026-27?

Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Andermatt-Sedrun. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.

How reliable will the snow be at Andermatt-Sedrun this season?

The simulation gives Andermatt-Sedrun a 56% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 15 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 67/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.

Mountains / Alps

Andermatt-Sedrun CH

4,738–9,715 ft · long-term average 300" per season · window ticket ~$114 · prime window Mar–Apr

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 314" at Andermatt-Sedrun for 2026-27 — 104% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 67/100, ~15 powder days, and Mar–Apr as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

Snow quantity 35%71

Season lean 30%55

Powder days 20%60

Bust risk 15%88

Median sim

314" (104% of typical)

P(above typical)

56%

Powder days

~15 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 210" and 426". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Andermatt-Sedrun, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Andermatt-Sedrun's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readAlps · from the 2026-27 outlook

The honest call for the Alps is that El Niño barely reaches them — ENSO explains little Alpine snowfall variance, and the season will be decided by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which no model reliably predicts months ahead. The nearest strong-Niño analogs cut both ways: December 2015 was record-warm and green across the northern Alps, while 2023-24 ran warm but storm-rich, burying high-altitude terrain as valley floors turned to rain. Treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a modest warm-wet tilt: rain-line risk below ~1,500 m, decent totals up high, heightened chance of a slow December. Bet altitude, not region.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Andermatt-Sedrun (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Andermatt-Sedrun

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$114/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

Days you plan to ski there

10days

Day ticket $ (default ~$114)

Best value for your plan

Epic Pass$1,119

LEAN BUY

61%seasons it pays off+$33expected vs tickets9.8breakeven days

Breakeven is 9.8 days at ~$114/day window tickets; you plan 10.
Covers Andermatt-Sedrun (unlimited).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.1 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 61% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $33).

Unlimited, unrestricted access at all Vail Resorts mountains — no blackouts, no reservations.

Andermatt-Sedrun 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Andermatt-Sedrun get in the 2026-27 season?: PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 314 inches — 104% of a typical season at Andermatt-Sedrun — with 80% of outcomes between 210 and 426 inches. The forecast blends Andermatt-Sedrun's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Andermatt-Sedrun in 2026-27?: Andermatt-Sedrun is on Epic Pass for 2026-27. At roughly $114 for a peak-window day ticket, the Epic Pass ($1,119) breaks even in about 10 days here. PassCast's simulator on this page runs your planned days through all 10,000 simulated seasons for a full verdict.
When is the best time to ski Andermatt-Sedrun in 2026-27?: Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Andermatt-Sedrun. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Andermatt-Sedrun this season?: The simulation gives Andermatt-Sedrun a 56% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 15 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 67/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.