❄ PassCast
Mountains / Sierra

Mountain High CA

6,601–8,202 ft · long-term average 70" per season · window ticket ~$149 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 41" at Mountain High for 2026-27 — 109% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 31/100, ~2 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

31SKIABILITY / 100Marginal natural snow
Snow quantity 35%15
Season lean 30%61
Powder days 20%8
Bust risk 15%39
Median sim
41" (109% of typical)
P(above typical)
54%
Powder days
~2 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 6" and 239". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mountain High, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

100"200"300"400"P10 6"P50 41"P90 239"typical 38"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mountain High's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: favorable (weak)

Tahoe straddles the storm-track pivot: record 1982-83 El Niño snow, but the 1987 and 1992 strong events were droughts. High variance, low predictive value. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readSierra · from the 2026-27 outlook

Strong El Niño is the Sierra's classic wet card, but it's south-weighted and high-variance: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all-timers, 2023-24 finished above normal, yet 2015-16 — the 'Godzilla' El Niño that was supposed to end the drought — gave Tahoe merely an average year. Mammoth and the southern Sierra carry the continent's best odds of an above-average season outside the Southwest; Tahoe is a better-than-even wet bet with real rain-line risk below 7,000 feet. Expect a back-loaded winter — January through March is when strong-Niño Sierra seasons detonate.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov100%Dec200%Jan150%Feb83%Mar50%Apr100%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mountain High (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

100"175"275"375"1990-91: 67" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 31" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 37" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 31" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 43" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 24" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 18" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 51" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 38" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 28" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 97" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 14" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 20" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 15" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 37" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 30" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 6" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 37" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 62" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 59" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 62" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 24" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 22" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 4" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 4" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 14" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 158" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 52" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 161" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 263" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 94" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 145" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 345" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 233" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 68" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 126" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Mountain High

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$149/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Indy Pass$369
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$71expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Mountain High (2d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.6 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $71).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Mountain High 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Mountain High get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 41 inches — 109% of a typical season at Mountain High — with 80% of outcomes between 6 and 239 inches. The forecast blends Mountain High's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Mountain High in 2026-27?
Mountain High is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Mountain High in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mountain High. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Mountain High this season?
The simulation gives Mountain High a 54% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 2 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 31/100 (“Marginal natural snow”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.