❄ PassCast
Mountains / Pyrenees

Baqueira-Beret ES

4,921–8,563 ft · long-term average 245" per season · window ticket ~$94 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 188" at Baqueira-Beret for 2026-27 — 87% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 44/100, ~9 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

44SKIABILITY / 100Selective — time it well
Snow quantity 35%53
Season lean 30%34
Powder days 20%36
Bust risk 15%52
Median sim
188" (87% of typical)
P(above typical)
36%
Powder days
~9 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 126" and 336". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Baqueira-Beret, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

100"200"300"400"500"600"700"P10 126"P50 188"P90 336"typical 217"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Baqueira-Beret's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble: dry Nov–Jan (49% of normal)

The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 49% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 62", spread 36–101"). Applied as a -10% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readPyrenees · from the 2026-27 outlook

The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov100%Dec104%Jan88%Feb100%Mar102%Apr100%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Baqueira-Beret (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

175"325"500"650"1990-91: 214" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 158" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 133" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 242" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 194" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 187" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 152" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 150" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 217" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 145" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 203" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 189" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 233" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 236" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 234" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 160" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 147" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 151" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 265" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 196" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 122" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 136" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 296" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 241" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 217" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 182" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 353" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 608" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 306" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 374" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 293" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 483" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 245" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 375" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 312" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 470" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Baqueira-Beret

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$94/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Indy Pass$369
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$181expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Baqueira-Beret (2d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.6 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $181).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Baqueira-Beret 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Baqueira-Beret get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 188 inches — 87% of a typical season at Baqueira-Beret — with 80% of outcomes between 126 and 336 inches. The forecast blends Baqueira-Beret's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Baqueira-Beret in 2026-27?
Baqueira-Beret is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Baqueira-Beret in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Baqueira-Beret. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Baqueira-Beret this season?
The simulation gives Baqueira-Beret a 36% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 9 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 44/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.