Sierra Nevada ES
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 33" at Sierra Nevada for 2026-27 — 94% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 24/100, ~2 powder days, and Jan–Feb as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 14" and 314". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Sierra Nevada, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Sierra Nevada's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 3% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 1", spread 0–3"). Applied as a -10% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readPyrenees · from the 2026-27 outlook
The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Sierra Nevada (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Sierra Nevada
Sierra Nevada isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sierra Nevada 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Sierra Nevada get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 33 inches — 94% of a typical season at Sierra Nevada — with 80% of outcomes between 14 and 314 inches. The forecast blends Sierra Nevada's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Sierra Nevada in 2026-27?
- Sierra Nevada is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $73 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Sierra Nevada in 2026-27?
- Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Sierra Nevada. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Sierra Nevada this season?
- The simulation gives Sierra Nevada a 46% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 2 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 24/100 (“Marginal natural snow”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.