❄ PassCast
Mountains / Colorado

Granby Ranch CO

8,202–9,203 ft · long-term average 220" per season · window ticket ~$119 · prime window Mar–Apr

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 220" at Granby Ranch for 2026-27 — 98% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 56/100, ~8 powder days, and Mar–Apr as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

56SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%59
Season lean 30%48
Powder days 20%32
Bust risk 15%100
Median sim
220" (98% of typical)
P(above typical)
46%
Powder days
~8 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 173" and 278". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Granby Ranch, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

150"200"250"300"350"P10 173"P50 220"P90 278"typical 225"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Granby Ranch's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: favorable (weak-moderate)

A north-south dipole: El Niño favors the southern ranges (+10-25%) via the southern storm track, is roughly neutral in the north. Statewide signal is modest. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readColorado · from the 2026-27 outlook

El Niño splits Colorado along a northwest-southeast axis: the energized subtropical jet favors the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, while Steamboat and the northern mountains lose their La Niña edge. Strong-event analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24) skew average-to-above statewide with storm-heavy springs, though 2015-16 was mixed. Play it as southern Colorado above average, the I-70 corridor near normal, and March-April loaded.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov100%Dec100%Jan98%Feb103%Mar104%Apr106%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Granby Ranch (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

75"150"225"300"1990-91: 230" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 200" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 266" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 188" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 220" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 242" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 256" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 170" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 209" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 195" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 171" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 138" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 234" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 177" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 197" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 214" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 202" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 237" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 246" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 206" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 249" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 144" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 181" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 257" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 185" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 257" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 257" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 246" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 278" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 229" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 219" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 267" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 271" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 260" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 240" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 181" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Granby Ranch

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$119/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Indy Pass$369
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$131expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Granby Ranch (2d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.0 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $131).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Granby Ranch 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Granby Ranch get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 220 inches — 98% of a typical season at Granby Ranch — with 80% of outcomes between 173 and 278 inches. The forecast blends Granby Ranch's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Granby Ranch in 2026-27?
Granby Ranch is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Granby Ranch in 2026-27?
Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Granby Ranch. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Granby Ranch this season?
The simulation gives Granby Ranch a 46% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 8 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 56/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.