Mt Norquay AB
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 91" at Mt Norquay for 2026-27 — 75% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 22/100, ~2 powder days, and Mar–Apr as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 65" and 126". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mt Norquay, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mt Norquay's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
One of Canada's clearest ENSO penalties: La Niña-vs-El Niño seasonal snowfall differences reach -38% at Lake Louise and -56% at Sunshine Village as the Pacific jet dives south in warm winters. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 62% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 34", spread 23–44"). Applied as a -9% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readCanadian Rockies · from the 2026-27 outlook
Banff's hills carry one of Canada's clearest El Niño penalties — roughly -38% at Lake Louise and -56% at Sunshine between phases — because warm-ENSO winters leave western Canada mild and storm-starved. 1997-98 and 2015-16 both brought lean mid-winters, and 2023-24 had Alberta resorts leaning on snowmaking into January. Sunshine's high, cold terrain preserves what falls, and spring upslope storms offer a late lifeline: plan on a below-average, back-loaded season with the best turns in March.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mt Norquay (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Mt Norquay
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$89/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Covers Mt Norquay (5d).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.0 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $574).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
- Covers Mt Norquay (7d).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.0 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $826).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Mt Norquay 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Mt Norquay get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 91 inches — 75% of a typical season at Mt Norquay — with 80% of outcomes between 65 and 126 inches. The forecast blends Mt Norquay's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Mt Norquay in 2026-27?
- Mt Norquay is on Ikon Pass, Ikon Base for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
- When is the best time to ski Mt Norquay in 2026-27?
- Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mt Norquay. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Mt Norquay this season?
- The simulation gives Mt Norquay a 13% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 2 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 22/100 (“Marginal natural snow”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.