Sundance UT
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 296" at Sundance for 2026-27 — 99% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 66/100, ~17 powder days, and Jan–Feb as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 206" and 413". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Sundance, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Sundance's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readUtah · from the 2026-27 outlook
Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Sundance (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Sundance
Sundance isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sundance 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Sundance get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 296 inches — 99% of a typical season at Sundance — with 80% of outcomes between 206 and 413 inches. The forecast blends Sundance's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Sundance in 2026-27?
- Sundance is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $149 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Sundance in 2026-27?
- Jan–Feb is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Sundance. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Sundance this season?
- The simulation gives Sundance a 49% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 17 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 66/100 (“Deep & reliable”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.