❄ PassCast
Mountains / Pyrenees

Grandvalira AD

5,610–8,661 ft · long-term average 165" per season · window ticket ~$74 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 143" at Grandvalira for 2026-27 — 95% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 43/100, ~3 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

43SKIABILITY / 100Selective — time it well
Snow quantity 35%44
Season lean 30%44
Powder days 20%12
Bust risk 15%79
Median sim
143" (95% of typical)
P(above typical)
43%
Powder days
~3 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 101" and 232". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Grandvalira, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

100"150"200"250"300"350"400"450"P10 101"P50 143"P90 232"typical 151"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Grandvalira's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readPyrenees · from the 2026-27 outlook

The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov97%Dec98%Jan106%Feb103%Mar98%Apr94%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Grandvalira (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

100"200"300"400"1990-91: 136" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 137" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 117" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 150" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 109" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 157" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 151" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 100" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 155" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 118" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 128" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 137" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 162" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 172" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 153" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 132" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 102" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 102" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 191" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 135" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 85" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 118" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 188" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 165" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 146" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 117" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 243" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 376" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 178" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 248" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 181" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 269" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 130" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 221" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 208" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 324" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Grandvalira

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$74/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

10days
Ikon Base$1,019
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$649expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Grandvalira (5d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $649).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Unlimited at a smaller Alterra set and 5 days at most partners, with peak-holiday blackouts. Excludes Jackson Hole, Alta, Snowbasin, and Deer Valley.
Ikon Pass$1,449
SKIP
0%seasons it pays off−$931expected vs tickets—breakeven days
  • Covers Grandvalira (7d).
  • Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $931).
  • At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Unlimited at ~18 Alterra destinations, 7 days each at partners (Jackson Hole, Alta, Big Sky, Aspen...). No blackouts; some partners need reservations.

Grandvalira 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Grandvalira get in the 2026-27 season?
PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 143 inches — 95% of a typical season at Grandvalira — with 80% of outcomes between 101 and 232 inches. The forecast blends Grandvalira's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Grandvalira in 2026-27?
Grandvalira is on Ikon Pass, Ikon Base for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Grandvalira in 2026-27?
Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Grandvalira. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Grandvalira this season?
The simulation gives Grandvalira a 43% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 3 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 43/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.