How much snow will Mission Ridge get in the 2026-27 season?

PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 159 inches — 88% of a typical season at Mission Ridge — with 80% of outcomes between 80 and 266 inches. The forecast blends Mission Ridge's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.

Is a season pass worth it for Mission Ridge in 2026-27?

Mission Ridge is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.

When is the best time to ski Mission Ridge in 2026-27?

Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mission Ridge. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.

How reliable will the snow be at Mission Ridge this season?

The simulation gives Mission Ridge a 39% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 7 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 39/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.

Mountains / PNW

Mission Ridge WA

4,570–6,821 ft · long-term average 200" per season · window ticket ~$125 · prime window Dec–Jan

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 159" at Mission Ridge for 2026-27 — 88% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 39/100, ~7 powder days, and Dec–Jan as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.

Snow quantity 35%47

Season lean 30%36

Powder days 20%28

Bust risk 15%41

Median sim

159" (88% of typical)

P(above typical)

39%

Powder days

~7 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 80" and 266". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mission Ridge, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mission Ridge's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.

Regional ENSO signal: unfavorable (strong)

The most reliable ENSO ski signal in the US: La Niña winters run ~115-125% of normal in the Cascades; El Niño is 'the great snowfall suppressor' (NOAA) with warmer storms and higher snow levels. Applied as a -7% tilt at partial weight.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readPNW · from the 2026-27 outlook

No US region has more to lose from a strong El Niño: the jet dives south and the Cascades marinate in mild Pacific air. The analogs are grim — 2023-24 delivered one of the worst Cascade seasons in memory with mid-winter rain to the summits, and 1997-98 ran well below normal; 2015-16 was the merciful near-normal exception. Odds strongly favor below-average snowfall and elevated freezing levels, hitting low-elevation terrain hardest. Book March, not December.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mission Ridge (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Mission Ridge

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$125/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

Days you plan to ski there

10days

Day ticket $ (default ~$125)

Indy Pass$369

SKIP

0%seasons it pays off−$119expected vs tickets—breakeven days

Covers Mission Ridge (2d).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.5 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $119).
At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.

2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Mission Ridge 2026-27: straight answers

How much snow will Mission Ridge get in the 2026-27 season?: PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-10) puts the median at 159 inches — 88% of a typical season at Mission Ridge — with 80% of outcomes between 80 and 266 inches. The forecast blends Mission Ridge's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
Is a season pass worth it for Mission Ridge in 2026-27?: Mission Ridge is on Indy Pass for 2026-27, but with day caps at this mountain the pass only pays off combined with days at its other resorts — the simulator on this page runs that math for your plan.
When is the best time to ski Mission Ridge in 2026-27?: Dec–Jan is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Mission Ridge. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
How reliable will the snow be at Mission Ridge this season?: The simulation gives Mission Ridge a 39% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 7 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 39/100 (“Selective — time it well”), updated daily.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.