Mountains / The Odds Sheet
The Odds Sheet
Every mountain is a bet. This is the payout table. We counted every 6-inch morning in 242 mountains' records and turned it into one number: Trip Odds — your chance of catching at least one powder morning on a five-day trip. Mt Baker pays out 79% of the time and has never dropped below 19 powder days in 36 winters. The bottom of this table is under 5%. Nothing here is a forecast — it's what actually happened, so it can't be wrong come March.
The 36-year awardsCounted, not predicted
- Best oddsMt Baker — 79% on a 5-day trip
- Highest floorMt Baker — never below 19 powder days in 36 winters
- Never bustsFernie — not one season below 70% of its own normal
- Cheapest powderLotte Arai — $1.92 per powder day at the window
How to read thisWhy tiers instead of a 1-242 list
With ~36 winters per mountain, plenty of resorts' odds overlap inside their margin of error. Ranking them 41st against 42nd would be inventing precision we don't have, so mountains sit in tiers and are alphabetical inside them. A mountain only moves up a tier when the low end of its 90% interval clears the line.
This table contains no forecast. We measure our own season-ahead skill and it is near zero outside five regions — see the accuracy page. This season's lean lives on each resort page, shown only where it verifies.
MYTHIC
A powder morning is the base case, not the jackpot.62%+ trip odds · 7 mountainsAlta
UT · Utah
67%64%–71%
31 powder days typical · floor 14 · ceiling 62
Alyeska
AK · PNW
75%72%–79%
37 powder days typical · floor 16 · ceiling 65
Brighton
UT · Utah
66%63%–69%
29 powder days typical · floor 14 · ceiling 54
Grand Targhee
WY · Northern Rockies
66%63%–70%
28 powder days typical · floor 13 · ceiling 51
Lotte Arai
JP · Japan
71%68%–74%
36 powder days typical · floor 14 · ceiling 53
Mt Baker
WA · PNW
79%76%–82%
43 powder days typical · floor 19 · ceiling 62
Solitude
UT · Utah
66%63%–69%
29 powder days typical · floor 14 · ceiling 54
DEEP
Deep days are common. Plan a week, expect to score.45%+ trip odds · 34 mountainsBeaver Mountain
UT · Utah
54%49%–58%
21 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 46
Big Sky
MT · Northern Rockies
52%49%–56%
19 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 39
Brian Head
UT · Utah
50%47%–53%
19 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 38
Corralco
CL · Andes
50%47%–54%
15 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 25
Crystal Mountain
WA · PNW
62%58%–66%
29 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 42
Dodge Ridge
CA · Sierra
50%46%–54%
19 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 38
Hakuba Valley
JP · Japan
54%50%–59%
18 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 46
Jackson Hole
WY · Northern Rockies
61%58%–65%
25 powder days typical · floor 11 · ceiling 47
Kirkwood
CA · Sierra
49%46%–54%
18 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 39
Kiroro
JP · Japan
65%61%–69%
29 powder days typical · floor 12 · ceiling 72
Loveland
CO · Colorado
56%53%–59%
23 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 34
Madarao
JP · Japan
49%45%–53%
17 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 36
Mt Hood Meadows
OR · PNW
55%50%–61%
23 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 48
Mt. Bachelor
OR · PNW
59%55%–64%
26 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 46
Myoko Suginohara
JP · Japan
52%48%–56%
19 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 38
Naeba-Kagura (Mt. Naeba)
JP · Japan
51%47%–56%
18 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 41
Nevados de Chillan
CL · Andes
57%53%–62%
18 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 37
Niseko United
JP · Japan
64%59%–69%
26 powder days typical · floor 11 · ceiling 79
Nozawa Onsen
JP · Japan
54%50%–59%
20 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 45
Palisades Tahoe
CA · Sierra
54%51%–58%
21 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 47
Park City
UT · Utah
52%49%–56%
20 powder days typical · floor 11 · ceiling 42
Powder Mountain
UT · Utah
56%53%–60%
23 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 44
Revelstoke
BC · Interior BC
54%51%–57%
23 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 35
Rusutsu
JP · Japan
58%55%–60%
25 powder days typical · floor 12 · ceiling 34
Sierra-at-Tahoe
CA · Sierra
59%56%–63%
26 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 50
Snowbird
UT · Utah
64%60%–68%
29 powder days typical · floor 12 · ceiling 59
Steamboat
CO · Colorado
49%45%–52%
19 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 34
Stevens Pass
WA · PNW
60%57%–64%
26 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 40
Sugar Bowl
CA · Sierra
61%56%–64%
26 powder days typical · floor 11 · ceiling 53
Timberline
OR · PNW
66%61%–71%
29 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 64
Vail
CO · Colorado
48%45%–50%
18 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 30
Whistler Blackcomb
BC · Western Canada
60%57%–64%
24 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 43
Whitewater
BC · Interior BC
55%52%–58%
22 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 38
Wolf Creek
CO · Colorado
55%52%–59%
21 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 40
RELIABLE
Roughly a coin flip on a five-day trip.30%+ trip odds · 68 mountains49 Degrees North
WA · PNW
46%43%–49%
17 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 32
Andermatt-Sedrun
CH · Alps
37%34%–41%
14 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 27
Arapahoe Basin
CO · Colorado
46%43%–48%
17 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 25
Arizona Snowbowl
AZ · Southwest
35%32%–39%
12 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 31
Aspen Snowmass
CO · Colorado
41%38%–44%
15 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 25
Avoriaz (Portes du Soleil)
FR · Alps
47%44%–51%
18 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 43
Banff Sunshine
AB · Canadian Rockies
46%43%–49%
17 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 28
Beaver Creek
CO · Colorado
42%40%–45%
16 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 28
Big White
BC · Interior BC
34%31%–37%
13 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 29
Bluewood
WA · PNW
41%36%–46%
13 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 32
Bolton Valley
VT · Northeast
37%35%–40%
14 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 23
Breckenridge
CO · Colorado
46%44%–48%
17 powder days typical · floor 8 · ceiling 28
Bridger Bowl
MT · Northern Rockies
47%44%–50%
17 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 38
Brundage Mountain
ID · Northern Rockies
45%42%–48%
17 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 28
Castle Mountain
AB · Canadian Rockies
37%34%–40%
12 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 24
Chamonix Mont-Blanc
FR · Alps
34%31%–37%
11 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 26
China Peak
CA · Sierra
43%39%–47%
14 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 35
Copper Mountain
CO · Colorado
37%34%–40%
13 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 23
Deer Valley
UT · Utah
45%41%–49%
17 powder days typical · floor 7 · ceiling 35
Eldora
CO · Colorado
33%31%–36%
12 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 21
Engelberg
CH · Alps
35%31%–39%
12 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 30
Fernie
BC · Interior BC
44%41%–47%
17 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 26
Flaine (Grand Massif)
FR · Alps
41%38%–44%
15 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 27
Furano
JP · Japan
33%31%–36%
12 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 19
Grouse Mountain
BC · Western Canada
39%35%–44%
14 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 31
Heavenly
CA/NV · Sierra
48%44%–53%
18 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 36
Hoodoo
OR · PNW
46%41%–51%
19 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 33
Jay Peak
VT · Northeast
45%42%–48%
17 powder days typical · floor 9 · ceiling 30
June Mountain
CA · Sierra
34%31%–38%
11 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 32
Killington
VT · Northeast
35%32%–37%
12 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 19
La Clusaz
FR · Alps
34%31%–37%
12 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 31
La Plagne
FR · Alps
33%31%–36%
12 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 25
Las Lenas
AR · Andes
35%32%–39%
9 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 20
Le Massif de Charlevoix
QC · Eastern Canada
35%33%–37%
12 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 21
Lost Trail Powder Mountain
MT · Northern Rockies
42%39%–46%
14 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 30
Mammoth Mountain
CA · Sierra
45%41%–50%
17 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 47
Monarch
CO · Colorado
48%44%–52%
17 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 35
Montana Snowbowl
MT · Northern Rockies
36%33%–40%
13 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 27
Monterosa Ski
IT · Alps
33%30%–37%
10 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 25
Mt Hood Skibowl
OR · PNW
39%33%–45%
12 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 36
Mt Rose Ski Tahoe
NV · Sierra
47%43%–50%
16 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 37
Northstar
CA · Sierra
47%43%–51%
17 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 37
Obertauern
AT · Alps
40%36%–43%
14 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 31
Pebble Creek
ID · Northern Rockies
35%32%–38%
13 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 27
Portillo
CL · Andes
46%42%–49%
13 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 27
Powderhorn
CO · Colorado
39%35%–43%
12 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 37
Purgatory
CO · Colorado
38%35%–41%
13 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 24
RED Mountain
BC · Interior BC
41%37%–44%
15 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 33
Saddleback
ME · Northeast
33%30%–35%
12 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 19
Schweitzer
ID · Northern Rockies
42%38%–47%
15 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 37
Shiga Kogen
JP · Japan
43%40%–46%
15 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 32
SilverStar
BC · Interior BC
35%32%–38%
12 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 28
Smugglers' Notch
VT · Northeast
39%37%–41%
14 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 24
Snowbasin
UT · Utah
44%40%–47%
17 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 33
St. Anton (Ski Arlberg)
AT · Alps
41%37%–45%
15 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 30
Stowe
VT · Northeast
40%37%–42%
14 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 24
Sundance
UT · Utah
48%44%–52%
17 powder days typical · floor 10 · ceiling 31
Sunlight
CO · Colorado
34%32%–37%
12 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 20
Tamarack Resort
ID · Northern Rockies
41%38%–44%
15 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 26
Taos Ski Valley
NM · Southwest
43%40%–47%
15 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 32
Telluride
CO · Colorado
38%35%–40%
12 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 25
Val d'Isère-Tignes
FR · Alps
36%33%–39%
12 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 27
Valle Nevado
CL · Andes
43%39%–47%
13 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 26
White Pass
WA · PNW
44%41%–48%
17 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 32
Whitefish Mountain Resort
MT · Northern Rockies
39%36%–42%
14 powder days typical · floor 5 · ceiling 30
Willamette Pass
OR · PNW
40%35%–44%
14 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 36
Winter Park
CO · Colorado
42%39%–45%
16 powder days typical · floor 6 · ceiling 27
Zao Onsen
JP · Japan
39%35%–44%
12 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 37
STEADY
You ski the mountain, not the storm cycle.18%+ trip odds · 47 mountainsAlpe d'Huez
FR · Alps
30%26%–34%
9 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 30
Apex
BC · Interior BC
24%21%–27%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 20
Appi Kogen
JP · Japan
30%25%–35%
7 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 33
Baqueira-Beret
ES · Pyrenees
32%27%–36%
10 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 33
Bretton Woods
NH · Northeast
22%19%–24%
7 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 13
Burke Mountain
VT · Northeast
28%26%–30%
10 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 16
Catedral (Bariloche)
AR · Andes
33%29%–36%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 15
Cervinia (Cervino Ski Paradise)
IT · Alps
27%24%–30%
9 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 19
Chapelco
AR · Andes
24%21%–27%
6 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 13
Courmayeur Mont Blanc
IT · Alps
23%20%–27%
7 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 23
Crested Butte
CO · Colorado
27%24%–31%
10 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 23
Discovery Ski Area
MT · Northern Rockies
21%19%–23%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
El Colorado
CL · Andes
31%28%–35%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 18
Gore Mountain
NY · Northeast
20%18%–22%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
Granby Ranch
CO · Colorado
24%21%–26%
8 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 13
Keystone
CO · Colorado
24%22%–27%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 15
Kicking Horse
BC · Interior BC
31%28%–34%
10 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 19
La Parva
CL · Andes
33%29%–36%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 20
Laax
CH · Alps
22%20%–25%
7 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 15
Les Arcs
FR · Alps
33%30%–36%
11 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 25
Les Deux Alpes
FR · Alps
25%22%–28%
8 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 28
Mad River Glen
VT · Northeast
32%29%–34%
12 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 18
Megève
FR · Alps
22%19%–24%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 16
Mission Ridge
WA · PNW
23%20%–27%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 18
Mont-Sainte-Anne
QC · Eastern Canada
24%22%–26%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
Mount Bohemia
MI · Midwest
32%29%–35%
11 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 21
Mt Hutt
NZ · New Zealand
30%26%–34%
8 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 21
Red Lodge Mountain
MT · Northern Rockies
31%28%–35%
10 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 20
Red River Ski Area
NM · Southwest
21%19%–24%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 18
Saas-Fee
CH · Alps
20%18%–23%
6 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 17
Serre Chevalier
FR · Alps
20%18%–22%
6 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 15
Ski Cooper
CO · Colorado
31%28%–33%
11 powder days typical · floor 4 · ceiling 17
Ski Santa Fe
NM · Southwest
30%27%–33%
10 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 21
Snowshoe
WV · Mid-Atlantic
21%19%–23%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 13
Stratton
VT · Northeast
24%21%–26%
8 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 15
Stubai Glacier
AT · Alps
24%21%–27%
8 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 20
Sugarbush
VT · Northeast
32%29%–34%
12 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 18
Sugarloaf
ME · Northeast
29%27%–32%
10 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 17
Sun Peaks
BC · Interior BC
24%21%–27%
8 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 25
Sun Valley
ID · Northern Rockies
25%22%–28%
8 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 17
Sunday River
ME · Northeast
23%21%–25%
8 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 12
The Remarkables
NZ · New Zealand
26%23%–29%
6 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
Treble Cone
NZ · New Zealand
30%25%–37%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 26
Verbier 4 Vallees
CH · Alps
31%29%–34%
11 powder days typical · floor 3 · ceiling 21
Whiteface
NY · Northeast
21%19%–23%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 13
Wildcat
NH · Northeast
27%25%–29%
9 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 15
Zermatt
CH · Alps
21%19%–24%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
THIN
Powder is an event here. Time it or forget it.8%+ trip odds · 50 mountainsAngel Fire Resort
NM · Southwest
19%17%–21%
5 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 14
Åre
SE · Scandinavia
10%8%–12%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 10
Arosa Lenzerheide
CH · Alps
19%17%–22%
6 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 14
Attitash
NH · Northeast
16%14%–18%
5 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 10
Belleayre
NY · Northeast
18%16%–20%
6 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 11
Bormio
IT · Alps
13%11%–15%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 10
Bromley
VT · Northeast
19%17%–22%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Cannon Mountain
NH · Northeast
18%16%–20%
6 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 10
Cardrona
NZ · New Zealand
21%18%–25%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 13
Cerro Castor
AR · Andes
12%10%–14%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 8
Coronet Peak
NZ · New Zealand
11%9%–13%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 9
Cortina d'Ampezzo
IT · Alps
12%10%–15%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Courchevel (Les 3 Vallees)
FR · Alps
18%16%–21%
5 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 16
Cranmore
NH · Northeast
11%9%–13%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 8
Davos Klosters
CH · Alps
20%17%–22%
6 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Grandvalira
AD · Pyrenees
17%14%–20%
4 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 19
Grindelwald-Wengen (Jungfrau)
CH · Alps
14%12%–16%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Gunstock
NH · Northeast
17%15%–19%
6 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 12
Holiday Valley
NY · Northeast
17%15%–19%
6 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Ischgl
AT · Alps
20%17%–23%
6 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 15
Kimberley
BC · Interior BC
11%9%–12%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Kitzbuehel
AT · Alps
18%16%–21%
6 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 17
Lake Louise
AB · Canadian Rockies
13%11%–14%
4 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 7
Livigno
IT · Alps
15%13%–17%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Loon Mountain
NH · Northeast
19%17%–21%
7 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 10
Lutsen Mountains
MN · Midwest
12%10%–14%
3 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 11
Magic Mountain
VT · Northeast
20%17%–22%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Mont Orford
QC · Eastern Canada
11%10%–13%
3 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 9
Mount Snow
VT · Northeast
19%17%–21%
7 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Mount Sunapee
NH · Northeast
18%16%–20%
6 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 11
Nub's Nob
MI · Midwest
10%9%–11%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Obergurgl-Hochgurgl
AT · Alps
20%17%–23%
6 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 14
Okemo
VT · Northeast
16%14%–18%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 11
Pajarito Mountain
NM · Southwest
17%14%–19%
5 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 14
Panorama
BC · Interior BC
16%14%–18%
4 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 13
Perisher
AU · Australia
18%12%–25%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 26
Pleasant Mountain
ME · Northeast
10%9%–12%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Sestriere (Via Lattea)
IT · Alps
18%16%–21%
6 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 13
Seven Springs
PA · Mid-Atlantic
14%13%–17%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 11
Sipapu
NM · Southwest
14%12%–16%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 10
Sölden
AT · Alps
17%15%–19%
4 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 13
St. Moritz
CH · Alps
15%13%–17%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 12
Stoneham
QC · Eastern Canada
14%12%–15%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 8
The Highlands
MI · Midwest
10%9%–11%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Tomamu
JP · Japan
14%12%–15%
5 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 8
Tremblant
QC · Eastern Canada
16%14%–17%
5 powder days typical · floor 2 · ceiling 11
Trysil
NO · Scandinavia
11%10%–13%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Val Gardena (Dolomiti)
IT · Alps
13%11%–15%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 13
Waterville Valley
NH · Northeast
18%16%–20%
6 powder days typical · floor 1 · ceiling 11
Zell am See-Kaprun
AT · Alps
15%12%–18%
4 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 17
SNOWMAKING COUNTRY
Groomers and guns. Come for the laps.0%+ trip odds · 21 mountainsAfton Alps
MN · Midwest
3%2%–4%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 4
Alta Badia
IT · Alps
9%7%–11%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 10
Blue Mountain
PA · Mid-Atlantic
3%2%–4%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 5
Blue Mountain (ON)
ON · Eastern Canada
6%5%–7%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 5
Boyne Mountain
MI · Midwest
8%7%–10%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 6
Bromont
QC · Eastern Canada
8%7%–9%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 6
Camelback
PA · Mid-Atlantic
5%4%–6%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 5
Crystal Mountain (MI)
MI · Midwest
9%8%–11%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 7
Granite Peak
WI · Midwest
3%2%–4%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 3
Hemsedal
NO · Scandinavia
9%8%–11%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 6
Kronplatz
IT · Alps
5%4%–6%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 6
Levi
FI · Scandinavia
5%4%–6%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 5
Marmot Basin
AB · Canadian Rockies
8%7%–10%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 8
Mt Brighton
MI · Midwest
1%1%–2%
0 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 2
Mt Norquay
AB · Canadian Rockies
7%6%–8%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 5
Nakiska
AB · Canadian Rockies
5%4%–5%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 4
Ruka
FI · Scandinavia
6%5%–7%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 4
Saalbach-Hinterglemm
AT · Alps
9%7%–11%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 11
Schladming
AT · Alps
8%5%–10%
2 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 18
Wilmot Mountain
WI · Midwest
3%3%–4%
1 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 3
Wisp
MD · Mid-Atlantic
9%8%–10%
3 powder days typical · floor 0 · ceiling 6
Powder odds: straight answers
- Which ski resort has the best chance of a powder day?
- Mt Baker (WA). Across its 36 recorded winters, 79% of five-day trips would have included at least one morning after 6+ inches of new snow — and in its worst season on record it still delivered 19 powder days. Alyeska is second at 75%.
- What are Trip Odds?
- The share of five-day trips that would have included at least one morning after 6 inches or more of new snow, averaged across the mountain's recorded seasons. It is a counted frequency over real winters, not a forecast — so unlike a season outlook, it cannot be wrong in March. The 90% range shown beside each number comes from resampling that mountain's own seasons 1,000 times.
- Why are the mountains grouped in tiers instead of ranked 1 to 242?
- Because the data cannot support a strict ranking. With roughly 36 winters per mountain, many resorts' powder odds overlap within their margin of error — ranking them 41st versus 42nd would be inventing precision. Mountains are only placed in a higher tier when the low end of their 90% interval clears that tier's threshold, and within a tier they are listed alphabetically.
- Does this ranking account for this season's snow forecast?
- No, deliberately. PassCast back-tests its own season-ahead forecast and publishes the result: the skill is close to zero outside a handful of strong-teleconnection regions. Sorting 242 mountains by a forecast that weak would be sorting noise, so this table ranks the 36-year record instead. This season's lean is shown separately on each resort page, and only where it verifies.
Year-to-year variation, powder-day frequency and monthly timing come from ERA5 reanalysis. Long-run snowfall levels are anchored to each resort's own published average, so our inches are on the same scale as theirs. Counted frequencies over each mountain's own 36-season record (bias-corrected ERA5). Contains no forecast: nothing here changes if the seasonal outlook is wrong. Trip Odds intervals are 90% bootstrap (1,000 resamples of the observed seasons). Fifteen mountains whose reanalysis record contains implausible minimum seasons are excluded from the awards above rather than quietly ranked.