Sölden AT
The short answer: PassCast projects a median of 192" at Sölden for 2026-27 — 100% of a typical season — with a skiability rating of 52/100, ~4 powder days, and Mar–Apr as the prime window. Updated daily from 10,000 simulations.
80% of simulated seasons land between 140" and 262". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Sölden, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Sölden's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years, at 10% weight — the level that verified best for Alps in back-testing, with the rest drawn from unconditioned climatology. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (July 9, 2026): El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it persists through early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Oct-Dec — CPC notes it would rank among the largest El Niño events on record since 1950. Latest weekly Niño3.4: +1.2°C. IRI's July 20 update puts El Niño at 100% from JAS 2026 through JFM 2027 — DJF 2026-27 is now a certainty in the probabilistic forecast. Latest observed ONI (AMJ 2026): +1.0.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 94% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 97", spread 68–133"). Applied as a -2% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readAlps · from the 2026-27 outlook
The honest call for the Alps is that El Niño barely reaches them — ENSO explains little Alpine snowfall variance, and the season will be decided by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which no model reliably predicts months ahead. The nearest strong-Niño analogs cut both ways: December 2015 was record-warm and green across the northern Alps, while 2023-24 ran warm but storm-rich, burying high-altitude terrain as valley floors turned to rain. Treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a modest warm-wet tilt: rain-line risk below ~1,500 m, decent totals up high, heightened chance of a slow December. Bet altitude, not region.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
Your powder oddsCounted from 36 recorded winters — no forecast in this number
17% of five-day trips to Sölden would have included at least one morning after 6"+ of new snow (90% range 15–19%). In its leanest recorded winter it still produced 1; in its best, 13. See how that ranks →
Each bar is one recorded season against Sölden's own typical winter — the mountain's personality in one glance.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Sölden (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Sölden
Sölden isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sölden 2026-27: straight answers
- How much snow will Sölden get in the 2026-27 season?
- PassCast's latest 10,000-run simulation (reseeded 2026-07-28) puts the median at 192 inches — 100% of a typical season at Sölden — with 80% of outcomes between 140 and 262 inches. The forecast blends Sölden's own 36-season ENSO analog record with NOAA's seasonal outlook and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble.
- Is a season pass worth it for Sölden in 2026-27?
- Sölden is not on Epic, Ikon, or Mountain Collective for 2026-27 — budget about $90 per peak-window day ticket, or check the resort's own multi-day products.
- When is the best time to ski Sölden in 2026-27?
- Mar–Apr is the prime window — the deepest contiguous stretch of the ENSO-conditioned season at Sölden. Month-by-month medians are charted on this page.
- How reliable will the snow be at Sölden this season?
- The simulation gives Sölden a 51% chance of beating its typical season and a median of about 4 six-inch-plus powder days. Its skiability rating is 52/100 (“Solid skiing expected”), updated daily.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.