The 2026 southern season, live LIVE
Why this page is different from a winter outlook: the southern season is happening now, so roughly 61% of it is already measured rather than forecast. Every number here blends real observed snowfall with what each mountain's 36-season record says about the rest — which makes it far firmer than any pre-season northern forecast, including our own. Nevados de Chillan currently leads at 95/100.
Where the season standsConditions compiled 2026-07-26
The southern season turned on a single storm — and not the one that was forecast. The July 6-11 system flagged in the last update essentially failed, leaving Portillo with about 2 cm and half of Chile's areas still shut on July 16. Then a nine-day atmospheric river beginning July 15 buried the central Andes: roughly 5.2 m (17 ft) at Portillo — close to an entire average season in nine days, and about ten times what the previous two months had delivered — with some 3 m at Valle Nevado and 2 m at La Parva, which Chilean press called the heaviest central-cordillera snowfall in four decades. Below the snowline the same system was a disaster: Chile declared a state of emergency, with 13 people dead, four missing, more than 100,000 isolated and over 1,100 homes destroyed. For skiers the picture is better but not simple. Portillo sits on a 270 cm base yet is closed, with no pistes open and its access road shut since July 14; Valle Nevado (170/90 cm) is running 9 of 17 lifts, La Parva 11 of 15, and Las Leñas 11 of 15 on 200 cm up top. The windfall is regional, not national — Chile's DGA snow routes north of Santiago are running +100% to +545% of normal while Volcán Chillán sits at -43% and Alto Mallines -53%, and Patagonia barely participated (Catedral 80/50 cm, Cerro Castor 40/15 cm). One honest caveat: national snow-water equivalent is 331 mm against a 390 mm norm — 15% below normal — so this snowpack is deep but light, and depth overstates the water in it. New Zealand has quietly recovered from a record-warm, badly delayed start into a genuine mid-season snowpack, though it splits hard by elevation: Mt Hutt holds 140-160 cm up high with all 5 lifts and about 86% of its terrain open, while The Remarkables' base area sits at just 12-15 cm. A July 24-25 southerly topped everything up and briefly closed Turoa in a blizzard after 40 cm in 24 hours. Australia is the El Niño call verifying the hard way: Spencers Creek — the 72-year benchmark at 1,830 m — read 0 cm on June 24, only the second time on record with no snow entering July, peaked at 70.8 cm on July 16, and had slipped to 68 cm by July 21, the lowest for that date since 2015 and roughly 57% of the late-July norm. Resorts are leaning on snowmaking, with Mt Buller open on just 3 of its 47 km of piste.
Every southern mountain, ranked by this season
Skiability blends absolute snow, season-vs-typical, powder days and bust risk — and for these mountains it is mostly built on snow that has already fallen. Trip Odds beside it is the forecast-free number: how often a five-day trip here has caught a powder morning across the whole record.
| # | Resort | Skiability | Median sim | vs typical | Trip odds | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevados de Chillan CL | 95 | 497" | 186% | 57% | 61% |
| 2 | Portillo CL | 84 | 365" | 147% | 46% | 0% |
| 3 | Valle Nevado CL | 81 | 325" | 145% | 43% | 0% |
| 4 | La Parva CL | 73 | 230" | 145% | 33% | 0% |
| 5 | El Colorado CL | 70 | 212" | 139% | 31% | 0% |
| 6 | Las Lenas AR | 70 | 219" | 135% | 35% | 0% |
| 7 | Corralco CL | 69 | 264" | 110% | 50% | 0% |
| 8 | Catedral (Bariloche) AR | 53 | 176" | 96% | 33% | 61% |
| 9 | Chapelco AR | 53 | 158" | 108% | 24% | 0% |
| 10 | Falls Creek AU | 51 | 128" | 228% | 20% | 61% |
| 11 | Cerro Castor AR | 51 | 134" | 116% | 12% | 0% |
| 12 | Mt Hutt NZ | 45 | 148" | 102% | 30% | 0% |
| 13 | Mt Buller AU | 45 | 93" | 129% | 19% | 61% |
| 14 | Treble Cone NZ | 39 | 116" | 103% | 30% | 0% |
| 15 | Cardrona NZ | 38 | 109" | 102% | 21% | 0% |
| 16 | Coronet Peak NZ | 32 | 76" | 101% | 11% | 0% |
| 17 | Whakapapa NZ | 30 | 80" | 102% | 25% | 0% |
| 18 | Turoa NZ | 30 | 80" | 102% | 25% | 0% |
| 19 | Thredbo AU | 28 | 81" | 92% | 20% | 0% |
| 20 | Mt Hotham AU | 28 | 78" | 92% | 21% | 0% |
| 21 | Perisher AU | 20 | 51" | 94% | 18% | 0% |
| 22 | The Remarkables NZ | 18 | 81" | 59% | 26% | 61% |
Andes
This is El Niño's flagship ski trade, and 2026 has now verified it in the most violent way available: after a genuinely alarming snow drought into mid-July, a nine-day atmospheric river from July 15 dropped roughly 5.2 m on Portillo — near an entire average season — and about 3 m on Valle Nevado, the heaviest central-cordillera snowfall in four decades. That matches the warm-ENSO signal in the record (Portillo averages roughly +45% snowfall in warm-ENSO seasons; Masiokas et al. 2006, bestsnow.net) and the 1997/2015 pattern of quiet Junes preceding multi-meter July-September cycles. Two caveats now matter more than the headline. The windfall is concentrated north of Santiago — the southern Chilean volcanoes (Chillán, Alto Mallines) are running 40-55% below normal and Patagonia hardly participated — and the snow is low-density, with national snow-water equivalent still 15% below its norm despite record depths. August and September remain the payoff months, and access, not snow, is now the binding constraint at the highest resorts.
New Zealand
El Niño flips New Zealand into a south-westerly regime — cold S-SW flow favoring the southern and western South Island — and after a record-warm May and June delayed openings by weeks, that regime has delivered. Repeated southerly cycles from July 1 rebuilt the Southern Alps to a genuine mid-season snowpack: Mt Hutt now holds 140-160 cm up top with all five lifts and roughly 86% of its terrain open, and briefly had the most open terrain of any resort on earth. The split is by elevation rather than region — high Canterbury and Mackenzie fields (Mt Hutt, Roundhill, Mt Dobson, Ohau) look normal for late July, while lower base areas remain thin, with The Remarkables at 12-15 cm and Coronet Peak at 25-30 cm. Of the three Southern Hemisphere regions, NZ is the quiet El Niño beneficiary behind the Andes; aim high, and mid-July onward.
Australia
El Niño is the Australian snowpack's worst enemy, and 2026 is running as one of the worst seasons in the 72-year record. Peak Spencers Creek depth averages ~35 cm below its 196 cm norm in El Niño years, and the three prior very strong events peaked 25-55% below normal. This season went further: Spencers Creek measured 0 cm on June 24 — only the second time on record with no snow entering July — recovered to 35 cm in early July on the back of a cold front that delivered 22-28 cm across Thredbo, Perisher and Hotham, peaked at 70.8 cm on July 16, then slipped to 68 cm by July 21, the lowest for that date since 2015 and about 57% of the late-July average. Peak depth normally arrives late August to mid-September, so roughly six weeks of accumulation remain, but the season is tracking below even a reduced pre-season forecast. Expect a below-average peak, an early melt-out, and the best conditions at high, snowmaking-rich terrain in the heart of winter.
The 2026 southern season: straight answers
- How is the 2026 South American ski season going?
- This is El Niño's flagship ski trade, and 2026 has now verified it in the most violent way available: after a genuinely alarming snow drought into mid-July, a nine-day atmospheric river from July 15 dropped roughly 5.2 m on Portillo — near an entire average season — and about 3 m on Valle Nevado, the heaviest central-cordillera snowfall in four decades. That matches the warm-ENSO signal in the record (Portillo averages roughly +45% snowfall in warm-ENSO seasons; Masiokas et al. 2006, bestsnow.net) and the 1997/2015 pattern of quiet Junes preceding multi-meter July-September cycles. Two caveats now matter more than the headline. The windfall is concentrated north of Santiago — the southern Chilean volcanoes (Chillán, Alto Mallines) are running 40-55% below normal and Patagonia hardly participated — and the snow is low-density, with national snow-water equivalent still 15% below its norm despite record depths. August and September remain the payoff months, and access, not snow, is now the binding constraint at the highest resorts.
- Where is the best snow in the Southern Hemisphere right now?
- Nevados de Chillan (CL) currently leads PassCast's Southern Hemisphere ranking with a skiability rating of 95/100 and a median simulated season of 497" — 186% of a typical year there. Because the southern season is underway, roughly 61% of it is already locked in by observed snowfall rather than forecast, so these numbers are far firmer than a pre-season outlook.
- Are Southern Hemisphere forecasts more reliable than pre-season northern ones?
- Right now, yes — for a simple reason. About 61% of the southern season is already measured rather than predicted, so the remaining uncertainty covers only the rest of the winter. Pre-season forecasts for the northern winter have almost no skill by comparison; we publish our measured skill scores openly.
- Does an El Niño winter help or hurt Southern Hemisphere skiing?
- It splits them. This is El Niño's flagship ski trade, and 2026 has now verified it in the most violent way available: after a genuinely alarming snow drought into mid-July, a nine-day atmospheric river from July 15 dropped roughly 5.2 m on Portillo — near an entire average season — and about 3 m on Valle Nevado, the heaviest central-cordillera snowfall in four decades. Australia is the opposite case: El Niño is the Australian snowpack's worst enemy, and 2026 is running as one of the worst seasons in the 72-year record. New Zealand sits between the two — El Niño flips New Zealand into a south-westerly regime — cold S-SW flow favoring the southern and western South Island — and after a record-warm May and June delayed openings by weeks, that regime has delivered.
Observed snowfall comes from ERA5 reanalysis and a 16-day multi-model blend; the remainder of each season is simulated from that mountain's own record. See methodology and our measured forecast skill. Written conditions are refreshed manually — the numbers update on their own daily.