Angel Fire Resort
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 40%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Season ahead / U.S. mountain outlook
Southwest ski season outlook
See the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook for your mountains. Build a winter shortlist, then find the pass that fits your ski days.
Three-month outlooksNOAA Climate Prediction Center
Show reviewed destinations for your exact pass. Day limits, shared pools, blackouts and reservations still apply. Missing rows do not prove no access. Access reviewed Sep 8, 2026.
Dec 1, 2026 – Feb 28, 2027
Precipitation issued Aug 20, 2026 · Temperature issued Aug 20, 2026
Seasonal odds, not a snowfall total.
Percentages label NOAA probability-map categories: 40%+ marks the lower edge of a mapped probability band, not an exact estimate for that mountain. These are broad three-month climate categories relative to the 1991–2020 normal. Wetter does not necessarily mean snowier: consider temperature too. Equal chances means no category is favored, not a promise of an average winter.
The pattern behind winter 2026–27NOAA regional discussion · issued Aug 20, 2026
NOAA expects El Niño to play a larger role through winter. Its outlook combines climate models, past comparable events and recent trends. This is regional context for the mountain maps.
Northern U.S. temperature
Warmer-than-normal winter temperatures are favored across the northern U.S., from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast.
For ski planningRead temperature alongside precipitation when comparing your mountain options.
California: timing matters
The wet outlook strengthens later in winter. Above-50% odds cover much of coastal California and adjacent southern Arizona, with the broadest coverage in January–March.
For ski planningA coastal precipitation signal is not a Sierra snowfall forecast. Compare the actual mountain’s early and late winter windows.
Northwest coast versus inland
NOAA keeps the winter dry tilt inland, focused on the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, rather than extending it across the Northwest coast.
For ski planningAvoid treating the whole Northwest as one forecast. Check your mountain’s own mapped category.
See your winter options on the map.
Use the filters above. The map includes all 8 matching mountains with mapped locations.
Opening loads an OpenStreetMap base layer. Forecast cards remain available below.
8 matching mountains · Showing 8. Select up to three for your pass shortlist.
Arizona Snowbowl
AZ · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 33%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Pajarito Mountain
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 33%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Red River Ski Area
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 33%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Sipapu
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 40%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Ski Apache
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 40%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Ski Santa Fe
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 40%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Taos Ski Valley
NM · Southwest
- Precipitation
- 33%+chance of above-normal seasonal precipitation
- Temperature
- Equal chancesNo category favored.
Percentages are NOAA map probability bands, not exact mountain estimates. Each belongs to its own category. Temperature and precipitation probabilities are not a joint chance of snow, and they do not predict conditions on a particular trip date. Regions and individual mountain elevations can differ from these broad outlook areas.
How to use these seasonal signals →
Your winter shortlist
Turn mountain options into a pass plan.
Keep your home mountain and possible trips together. The forecast provides context; your actual days, access rules and costs decide the pass.
Add up to three mountains above, or start with the places you already plan to ski →
Keep this winter plan.
Your link keeps the seasonal window, filters, shortlist and ski-day counts. If a current map is open, its layer is included. Reopening checks current outlook and pass-access availability.
Plan a ski season in Southwest.
Compare the three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks above, shortlist mountains, then enter your planned ski days to compare passes. A wetter regional outlook is not a prediction of more snow at every elevation or good conditions on a specific date.
These 8 mountain guides connect the seasonal outlook with trip weather, available observing-station normals, official reports, cameras and reviewed local planning details. Availability varies by mountain.