Sierra Ski Season Forecast 2026-27
The short answer: PassCast's simulations currently put Sierra above a typical season for 2026-27, with an average skiability of 62/100 across 14 mountains. Sugar Bowl (75), Sierra-at-Tahoe (75), Dodge Ridge (75) lead the region today. Forecast-driven ski pass planning starts with where the snow will be — run any of these mountains through the Pass Finder before you buy.
The regional readfrom the 2026-27 outlook · compiled 2026-07-06
Strong El Niño is the Sierra's classic wet card, but it's south-weighted and high-variance: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all-timers, 2023-24 finished above normal, yet 2015-16 — the 'Godzilla' El Niño that was supposed to end the drought — gave Tahoe merely an average year. Mammoth and the southern Sierra carry the continent's best odds of an above-average season outside the Southwest; Tahoe is a better-than-even wet bet with real rain-line risk below 7,000 feet. Expect a back-loaded winter — January through March is when strong-Niño Sierra seasons detonate.
Every Sierra mountain, ranked by 2026-27 forecast
Skiability blends absolute snow (35%), season-vs-typical (30%), powder days (20%), and bust risk (15%). Click through for each mountain's full simulation, month-by-month outlook, and pass math.
| # | Resort | Skiability | Median snow | vs typical | Powder days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sugar Bowl CA | 75 | 484" | 103% | ~27 |
| 2 | Sierra-at-Tahoe CA | 75 | 478" | 103% | ~27 |
| 3 | Dodge Ridge CA | 75 | 358" | 114% | ~22 |
| 4 | Heavenly CA/NV | 72 | 368" | 111% | ~19 |
| 5 | Palisades Tahoe CA | 71 | 393" | 104% | ~23 |
| 6 | Northstar CA | 69 | 361" | 107% | ~20 |
| 7 | Kirkwood CA | 69 | 360" | 105% | ~21 |
| 8 | Mt Rose Ski Tahoe NV | 68 | 350" | 107% | ~19 |
| 9 | China Peak CA | 67 | 298" | 112% | ~16 |
| 10 | Mammoth Mountain CA | 64 | 337" | 103% | ~17 |
| 11 | June Mountain CA | 55 | 232" | 101% | ~12 |
| 12 | Big Bear Mountain Resort CA | 43 | 110" | 112% | ~6 |
| 13 | Snow Valley CA | 30 | 54" | 104% | ~2 |
| 14 | Mountain High CA | 30 | 40" | 106% | ~2 |
Pass coverage in Sierra
Ikon Pass$1,449 · 5 of 14 Sierra mountains
Palisades Tahoe · Mammoth Mountain · June Mountain · Big Bear Mountain Resort · Snow Valley
Ikon Base$1,019 · 5 of 14 Sierra mountains
Palisades Tahoe · Mammoth Mountain · June Mountain · Big Bear Mountain Resort · Snow Valley
Sierra 2026-27: straight answers
- Will Sierra have a good 2026-27 ski season?
- PassCast's daily 10,000-run simulations put Sierra's 14 tracked mountains at 107% of a typical season on average — above a typical season — with an average skiability rating of 62/100. Strong El Niño is the Sierra's classic wet card, but it's south-weighted and high-variance: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all-timers, 2023-24 finished above normal, yet 2015-16 — the 'Godzilla' El Niño that was supposed to end the drought — gave Tahoe merely an average year. Mammoth and the southern Sierra carry the continent's best odds of an above-average season outside the Southwest; Tahoe is a better-than-even wet bet with real rain-line risk below 7,000 feet.
- Which Sierra ski resort will have the best snow in 2026-27?
- As of today's simulation, Sugar Bowl leads Sierra with a skiability rating of 75/100 ("Exceptional season likely") and a median of 484" — 103% of its typical season. The full ranking on this page updates daily.
- Which ski pass covers Sierra?
- Ikon Pass covers 5 of the 14 tracked Sierra mountains (e.g. Palisades Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain); Ikon Base covers 5 of the 14 tracked Sierra mountains (e.g. Palisades Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain); Epic Pass covers 3 of the 14 tracked Sierra mountains (e.g. Heavenly, Northstar). PassCast's Pass Finder runs your exact Sierra plan through every pass's day caps and prices.
Forecasts are probabilistic and reseeded daily from ENSO analogs, NOAA CPC outlooks, and the ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble — see methodology. Regional narrative compiled 2026-07-06.